fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. During the span of 25 years, same-sex marriage went from being an unimaginable idea to settled law. Mental Health AI & Data Science Politics News Business Investing English United States 365 episodes since Nov. 1, 2018 episodic IN THIS PODCAST FiveThirtyEight Politics Galen and Nate discuss what to make of it in this installment of Model Talk.". Politics Podcast: Baby Boomers' Strength Was In Their Numbers. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. Technology and politics reporter Kaleigh Rogers discusses the influence of conspiracy theories on the events that led to the Jan. 6th riot, why people believe in conspiracy theories in the first place, and what it means for the future of American politics. Mona Chalabi of FiveThirtyEight.com joins NPR's Rachel Martin for a look at who those people are. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. FiveThirtyEight Politics ABC News (US) Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. The crew looks at public opinion on the war in Afghanistan and the Biden administration's decision to withdraw U.S. troops as the country now faces a Taliban takeover. Happy holidays! They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. Since Jacksons confirmation is the expected outcome, the hearings similar to past ones were more about politics. They also review a new report from the American Association of Public Opinion Research on why election polls had a historically large error in 2020. A year later, Trump still appears to be the de facto leader of the party. Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. The team also looks at how debates about "Critical Race Theory" entered the culture wars, particularly in schools and state legislatures. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, but its not the only one. In this installment, Jennifer Merolla, a Professor of Political Science at UC Riverside, and Hannah Hartig, a research associate at Pew Research Center reflect on the political climate in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 and whether a similar American consensus is possible today. This research library service enables you to: Search more than 2,489,000 U.S. broadcasts using closed captioning; Borrow broadcasts on DVDs; View and Cite short streamed clips; Compare and Contrast perspectives across networks, stations and time; and Place video quotes within your commentary. The crew talks about where Americans stand on mitigation efforts, how politicians are responding, and what public health experts are saying about the current state of the pandemic. Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 podcast transcripts and podcast transcription services. 450 episodes. They also consider whether abortion as an issue will motivate voters in other elections this fall and look at the primary winners in Arizona, Missouri, Michigan and Washington. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. Thee also tracks the latest voting restrictions being considered by Georgia Republicans, including a proposal to end early voting on Sundays, which is when Black churches traditionally mobilize voters through "souls to the polls" events. Ron DeSantis over Trump for the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Dec. 7, 2017 | Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS 03 / Black Representation In North Carolina The debate over how districts should be drawn to ensure that minority voters are represented in Congress. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. He rejected the presidents requests and has consistently spoken out against conspiracy theories surrounding the election. Thanks! Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss why live caller surveys are no longer the gold standard in polling and what it means for the future of the industry. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. Tensions between the U.S. and China have grown in recent years and, in this installment, the crew looks at changing public opinion of China and how it could shape American politics. Millions of people were without power or heat, and in some cases water, in freezing cold temperatures for days because of severe blackouts. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. Then Nathaniel Rakich and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux join to discuss how abortion has played a role in elections this year and when we should know the results of next months midterms. FiveThirtyEight Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". The crew discusses what the future of the Build Back Better bill might look like in the Senate and why the provisions in the bill are more popular than the bill itself. LS 81 Global Rank TOP 0.01% ABOUT THIS PODCAST Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. The question is whether Mississippis law banning most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy is constitutional. Why Valentina Shevchenko Is A Huge Favorite And Jon Jones Isn't At UFC 285,A pair of championships are on the line at UFC 285 in Las Vegas Saturday night, and both title bouts offer a study in contrasts. Politics Podcast: Could Nikki Haley Actually Win The GOP Nomination? The crew looks at how the Johnson & Johnson vaccine pause shaped public opinion of that vaccine and willingness to be vaccinated more broadly. This is why we are coming every fortnight on your podcast platforms to help you make sense of the new and now. All you have to do is click the iTunes button below to subscribe to this podcast. Good Contents Are Everywhere, But Here, We Deliver The Best of The Best.Please Hold on! The crew discusses what these results mean for the midterms this fall and where other indicators of the political environment are pointing. Most recently, he ran and hosted 30 for 30 Podcasts, part of ESPN Films. fivethirtyeight podcast transcriptsapplications of stepper motor ppt. Download this theme at theoneamradio.bandcamp.com/track/whatspoint-theme. Finally, they analyze why Bidens approval rating has increased by nearly five points since late July. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. January 23, 2023 Examined What comes next after Texas school shooting? They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives. The crew breaks down notable primary races in Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin. We speak with journalist Sasha Issenberg about how that happened. ( Businessweek) Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. The crew looks at why it took 15 votes to get Rep. Kevin McCarthy elected House Speaker and what that process says about the two years ahead and the GOP more broadly. On todays Politics Podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19, and the midterms. The crew talks about the threat of a government shutdown and debt default, as well as how likely it is that Democrats get their legislative priorities passed. In the first "Model Talk" episode of the 2022 midterms cycle, Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the factors behind that forecast. They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings. The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. They also ask whether a recent poll that suggested about 15 percent of Americans believe in the QAnon conspiracy theory is a "good or bad use of polling.". Their recent data-driven post-mortem of the Latino vote in 2020 looks at which voters were likeliest to favor Trump and offers some hypotheses as to why. security jobs paying $30 an hour; fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. It's a busy week! This is the final episode. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. Earlier this month, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of climate change globally. The report relies on advanced climate modeling to illustrate where global warming is headed. Last week, we began to explore the most high-profile of those mayoral contests -- the New York City Democratic primary. The conventional wisdom is that if former President Trump wants the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, it's his. The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. They also ask whether we should be skeptical of polls showing Democrats performing well in parts of the Midwest where polls have repeatedly underestimated Republicans. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. They also discuss how the country has changed demographically and geographically over the past decade, based on the newly released 2020 census data. police- settlements. FiveThirtyEight's COVID-19 podcast is laser-focused on evidence. Staff writer at The Atlantic Elaine Godfrey and political science professor Danny Hayes discuss the role local news plays in society and what happens when it erodes. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. The crew discusses the results of the primary elections in Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Arkansas and Minnesota. Galen speaks with reporter Kaleigh Rogers about how candidates who denied the legitimacy of the 2020 election did in the midterms and what the future of election denialism looks like. What do we know, how confidently do we know it and what do we know we dont know? Galen Druke and Perry Bacon Jr. speak with political scientist and pastor, Ryan Burge, about how declining American religiosity is shaping our society and politics. The crew discusses why the number of independents has been growing and what it means for American politics. This installment of the podcast explores the role that the Black church plays in American politics, through initiatives like "souls to the polls" and beyond. The majority of the coverage did not show signs of bias, such as articles on immigration, midterm elections and the Jan. 6 hearings. The Sporkful production team includes Dan Pashman, Emma Morgenstern, Andres O'Hara, Tracey Samuelson, and Jared O'Connell. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Galen Druke speaks with the founders of the political research firm Equis Research, Stephanie Valencia and Carlos Odio. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. In this live taping of Model Talk in Washington, D.C., Nate and Galen break down the current forecasts for the Senate, House and gubernatorial races. Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. From 2008 to 2019, the percentage of people who said they got their news from local papers fell by more than half. The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. Galen Druke discusses the context of these laws with Theodore Johnson, the Director of the Fellows Program at the Brennan Center for Justice. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. 02:13:21 - Heartland POD on Twitter - @TheHeartlandPOD Co-HostsAdam Sommer @Adam_Sommer85 Rachel Parker @RaichetP Sean Diller @SeanDillerCO https://heartlandp The crew discuss the 2021 gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey and the very likely recall election in California. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. . The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. Micah Cohen and Kaleigh Rogers also join to talk about why Republicans are not backing a bipartisan commission to investigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol. Galen Druke speaks with political science professors Sunshine Hillygus and Patrick Eagan about the history of wedge issues and how they shape U.S. politics. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. And what does Floridas new voting law tell us about the GOPs efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the partys larger motivations? Joining the podcast are Andra Gillespie, political science professor at Emory University, Besheer Mohamed, senior researcher at Pew Research Center, and Stacey Holman, the director of PBSs recent documentary series The Black Church.". What do we know about the novel coronavirus, and what do we know we don't know? We hear about the decade-long relationship between the two of them, one that dates back to the Kennedys arrival in Washington in the mid-50s, and hear fascinating observations these women make about each other. Tuesday night was a test for some big names in the Republican Party in Wyoming and Alaska. Nate Silver and Galen Druke open the mailbag and answer listener questions, including how much it would cost to "fix polling" and why Vice President Harris is polling less favorably than President Biden. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. No products in the cart. The crew plays an Independence Day-inspired statistics game and discusses how the most recent Jan. 6 hearing could affect how Americans view former President Donald Trump. What happens when a former president is facing all kinds of legal liability on the federal and local level, but is also still the de facto party leader and considering another run for the White House? They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. Hosts of the British Talking Politics podcast, David Runciman and Helen Thompson, discuss why the British public and some members of the Conservative Party have soured on Johnson in a way that Republicans never soured on President Trump, despite his numerous scandals. Ron DeSantis and former President Donald Trump. The crew discusses how the Supreme Court may change once Breyer a more moderate Justice among the Liberals retires. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Tucker Carlson Has Exclusive Access To Jan. 6th Security Tapes. The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, The crew discusses potential sticking points in the Democrats' infrastructure plan and debates whether it should be considered bipartisan if a sizable portion of Republican voters support it, but Republican lawmakers do not. Today, we wanted to share the first episode of the ABC News podcast series, "In Plain Sight: Lady Bird Johnson," which uncovers the former first lady's surprisingly powerful role in the Johnson presidency and includes history-making revelations about Lyndon B. Johnsons time in office. They also discuss Bidens sweeping vaccine mandate -- how Americans feel about vaccine mandates in general, how effective they are and if Bidens is legal. They also have a good or bad use of polling on the topic of death and consider whether a recent Facebook hearing will lead to new regulations for the monolithic technology company. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. In the main event, former light Galen speaks with James Acton, the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about how leaders and experts weigh the risks of a nuclear conflict. The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. Nate Silver's. The recall effort ultimately failed by a sizable margin. Later, Monica Potts joins to discuss why voters sometimes contradict their partisan beliefs on ballot measures. The crew tries to rank the electoral significance of some of the biggest stories in the news right now. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. People are angry and politicians are pointing fingers. NEW TOWN . They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. They also consider Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's motivations for registering as an independent and look at the latest polling on a potential presidential primary matchup between Florida Gov. 0:00:00 Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. The Negro League Stars That MLB Kept Out And Is Finally Recognizing. They also debate whether phone or online polling is a better tool for gauging Americans' views on sensitive topics like the death penalty, and they preview a forthcoming report on how FiveThirtyEight's forecast models did in 2020. In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. Transcript: Ezra Klein Interviews Ta-Nehisi Coates and Nikole Hannah-Jones July 30, 2021 Every Tuesday and Friday, Ezra Klein invites you into a conversation about something that matters, like. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Democrats Are Open To Ditching Biden In 2024. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. Pew Research has released its verified voter survey, looking at how different groups within the electorate voted in 2020. The crew talks about what led to Cuomo's resignation, how New Yorkers feel about his replacement, and what this means for New Yorks 2022 Democratic primary race for governor. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. david senak now. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. The crew discusses why Sarah Palin may not be a shoe-in for a vacant House seat in Alaska. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. In the wake of the January 6th attack on the Capitol, academics and journalists have increasingly taken the possibility of future political violence in America seriously. The crew discusses the political fallout from the Supreme Courts decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. The crew breaks down Rep. Liz Cheney's loss, what comes next, and who's currently up and down in Alaska. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. Democrat Melanie Stansbury won a special election in New Mexico's first congressional district by a 25-point margin last Tuesday, performing better than Democrats did in the district in 2020. During a punchy episode of FiveThirtyEight's now daily politics podcast on Wednesday, Silver pushed back forcefully on anyone out there accusing him or his website of getting the 2020 election. The crew looks at the issues that have shaped the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races and rounds up some of the other local races and ballot measures around the country. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price 266, the . Saturday, February 25, 2023. In early January of 2020, then-President Trump encouraged Raffensperger to help overturn the election results in Georgia. Nathaniel Rakich discusses why it's difficult to draw a broader conclusion about the political environment based on the result. And lastly, they check-in on the gubernatorial recall efforts in California that are very likely to result in a recall election for Governor Gavin Newsom. FT Podcasts FT Weekend podcast 31 min listen Best of: Chef Mashama Bailey on reclaiming African-American food The award-winning chef explains her creative process 2 hours ago FT News Briefing. Listen at itun.es/i67M5bV. As the House Select Committee for Jan. 6 publishes its final report, the crew considers what the committee's impact has been on American politics and former President Donald Trump's standing with voters. 04:58 PM. New episodes release Tuesdays, Thursdays, and Sundays. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what hes learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. The crew discusses what legal debates are currently playing out, what the decision could mean for the future of Roe v. Wade, and where Americans stand on abortion restrictions in general. They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. As the broader electorate shifted left in 2020, compared to 2016, Latino voters shifted 8 percentage points to the right. They also discuss how incumbents have been faring overall in this midterms primaries. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. Galen and Nate discuss the state of uncalled races, what let to a good night for Democrats and answer listener questions. Science reporter Maggie Koerth also joins to talk about shifting attitudes on climate change among Republicans. The crew debates which states should vote first in the presidential primaries if the Iowa caucuses were to go away. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. Galen Druke talks to Nicole Hemmer about her new book, "Partisans: The Conservative Revolutionaries Who Remade American Politics in the 1990s.". Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . The crew discusses how President Bidens executive action that forgives up to $20,000 of student loan debt will impact politics and the economy. They also ask whether a new poll showing Biden's approval rating at just 33 percent deserves all the attention it's been getting. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. The crew discusses the value of a bipartisan strategy, the motivations behind it and the likelihood of Congress reaching a compromise. The crew checks in on the California recall election and other upcoming races, and talks about how a Trump endorsement is shaping a Wyoming primary.