jason heyward fangraphs jason heyward fangraphs

A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors FanGraphs Mugs. He swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.3%, compared to 23.3% in 2010), which led to a dip in his walk rate (11.2 BB%). When we know nothing else about Jason Heyward except the way he hits singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks without regard for his offensive contributions on the basepaths or his defense, his comps would be worth $159 million. My favorite minor story line this season is that the Cubs are paying about $40 million to replace Heyward with Bellinger, and the Dodgers are paying about $0 to replace Bellinger with Heyward. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. For the first method, we assume the only information we know is age, WAR, and total number of plate appearances. Believe it or not, on a team with Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Martin Prado, Bourn was tied with Jason Heyward with the most fWAR for position players on the Atlanta Braves. Thats just how it goes. Non-roster invitee Ronald Guzmn, who is in Giants camp as a two-way player, made his pitching debut in the ninth, surrendering a solo shot to P.J. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Aggravating as it might be, we dont know the answers to those questions. Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Its really impressive to see a guy go out there and throw a ton of strikes and throw strikes with his offspeed pitches. The former Yankees and Rangers first baseman topped out at 97 mph from the left side and struck out the first batter he faced swinging on an offspeed pitch. Ideally, we could look for players like Jason Heyward who are good offensively and defensively and see how those players performed. Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. Just like I wanted to see one in there. So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. With such an advanced plate approach and gargantuan numbers in the minors (he slashed .323/.408/.555 while rising from High-A to Triple-A as a teenager in 2009), Heyward reached the show years before most hitters do. . Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. From BIS, Heyward had the highest range numbers in the business. Swinging at more off-the-plate pitches, hitting the ball up the elevator shaft, smacking ground balls like a slap-hitting middle infielder none of these are good things. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. Its easy to lose sight of Heywards age, considering that he has been in the majors for two years, stands 6-foot-5, 240 pounds and could probably grow a beard by noon if he shaved right now. These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Im not going to worry about it.. With a bad shoulder and back luck, he still held his own in 2011 Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. But lets diagnose why Atlantas prodigy is turning in a subpar sophomore season. 2023 Pre-Season Projections Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward has been an above average offensive player, incredible on defense, and heading into free agency a few months after turning 26 years old, provides few realistic players for comparison. The Cubs released Heyward. Dodgers Add Jason Heyward LA signs five-time Gold Glover to a minor league deal with an invite to major league camp via Bleacher Report Jason Heyward Cubs Moving On from Heyward Team. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The No. Very obviously, he can sting a ball when he gets extended. Injuries happen and players decline unexpectedly. His 2012 projections are strong Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. For instance, Heyward, batting primarily in the leadoff spot for the first time in his career, put up a solid .351 OBP, scored 74 runs and stole 20 bases at an impressive 83% success rate, all while batting .271, the second-best mark of his big league tenure. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed. by Retrosheet. The first graph is conservative, beginning the estimation of a cost of a win at $7 million with inflation set at five percent per year (although salaries have been rising at a rate greater than that amount in recent seasons and are up about 50% from half a dozen seasons ago). Jason Heyward Reality Check | FanGraphs Membership Maybe you heard that some guy named Jason Heyward made the Atlanta Braves' Opening Day roster. Only Al Kaline, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Alex Rodriguez were within 15 runs on defense and ahead of him on offense. For an awfully consistent hitter, Jason Heyward is considered an awfully frustrating hitter. While hes never going to be a big stolen base threat, hes a quality athlete for a power forward-sized corner outfielder. After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that After a 27 homer and 21 steal campaign and the fact that Justin Upton was acquired to hit directly Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. Anyhow, heres where Heyward has hit baseballs in spring 2016: Of course Im wary of talking about anything based on so little data. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. These were the players remaining. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. Jacoby Ellsbury just finished Year Two of his contract. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. Those are just selective links, but they show Heyward with a right-center approach, and a good amount of batted-ball authority. He clearly can the man stands 65. Jason Heyward got more credit for his defense than Mike Trout, by our numbers. Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. by Retrosheet. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Heywards small sample of air balls also supports this. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Games. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. All of this he managed while only stealing 21 bases. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. 12 years and 0 . Ground balls are a function of the swings, and consider Xander Bogaerts. FanGraphs currently estimates the cost of a win at around $8 million. 2023 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Hows it going to go? Jeff Zimmerman found that speedy players, like Heyward, age better than the rest of the baseball population. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. All he needs to do is stay healthy. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Forget about everything else. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. He went second to home on a single 82% of the time, which was 16th-best among 131 players. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. Contracts matter Miller is entering his first year of arbitration while Heyward is now a FA. Efficiency. While Heyward is a solid offensive player, he does get a decent portion of his value from defense, which causes some concern about how Heywards value will sustain itself as he ages. . Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. Greatest Careers Through Age 25 Since World War II, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 30, Jason Heyward WAR Comps, Age 26 to Age 35, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps Through Age 25, Jason Heyward Offense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps Through Age 26, Jason Heyward Defense-Only Comps, Age 26 Through Age 35. Heywards value also wasnt helped by a Braves lineup that finished among baseballs worst in wOBA and runs scored, and if the Braves were to move Evan Gattis this winter to make room for Christian Bethancourt, the lineup likely would only be weaker in 2015. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. Signup . by Handedness. The most important years are likely to be those at the beginning, in which the team hopes to underpay their player. The group also has five players at the top who were tremendous successes. The other groups, with players similar to some aspect of Heywards game, but inferior in other ways, make Heyward a high-quality player, one perhaps worthy of a $200 million contract, but not a Hall of Famer. Just how healthy is Heyward? Freddie Freeman homers, Miguel Vargas walks again, Walker Buehler starts throwing. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. May 23, 2011 Atlanta Braves placed RF Jason Heyward on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to May 22, 2011. Interesting stuff, but isnt this potentially terrible news for Heyward given that the spring spray chart only shows a significant pull increase on ground balls rather than all contact and pulled ground balls have by far the lowest success rate of any balls in play? His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. . But even so, it seems like he has endured some bad luck on balls put in play. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. rates Jason Heyward as the 28th best fantasy outfielder. Thompson revived his career in Los Angeles last summer, hitting 13 homers with a .901 OPS. Dodgers 'believe' in Jason Heyward; can swing change revive his career? Perhaps rightfully so. Sort the leaderboards for UBR or Ultimate BaseRunning, and Heyward floats to the top. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Their average WAR is below. The Pirates suggested that Oviedo begin throwing a sinker because his four-seam fastball naturally sinks. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. The WAR group, which constitutes the group most closely approximating the quality of the player Jason Heyward is currently, puts Heyward on a Hall of Fame track. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Players are always free to change their minds about anything. Tony Conigliaro was unfortunately never the same after a pitch permanently injured him, while other players like Ruben Sierra and Carlos Baerga simply did not produce despite opportunities. That search reveals the following players. Using FanGraphs approximate current cost of a win at $8 million, the numbers are even bigger. Since the end of World War II, there are 42 players to have produced more than Heywards 61.9 defensive runs above average through age-25, and there are 61 players responsible for more offensive runs above average than Heywards 94.5 through his age-25 season. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Now, they are tasked with turning things around this year, in what should be a competitive National League once again. Heres a bomb to right-center. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. Heyward, as you know, is left-handed, and here is where he hit baseballs between 2014 2015: I dont know what, if anything, stands out right away. The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Lets focus on Heyward and power for a minute, then. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. Just to be clear, this isnt a matter of Heyward trading fly balls for line drives; his batted ball distribution, including his GB/FB rate, has stayed remarkably steady over the past three seasons, a period that includes his 2012 campaign in which he bashed a career-high 27 home runs. The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time The 19-year old was a first round pick in 2007 and has wasted no time establishing himself as a premier outfielder UZRs range component agrees. Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Gotta elevate if youre going to be pull-focused. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. He looked like a pitcher.. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. $8? Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. by Handedness. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? From 2010-2015, his 25 WAR was one of the top 20 marks in the game and in his final two seasons before free agency, his 10. This group also aged incredibly well. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The Leaderboards. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. by Retrosheet. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. For one thing, pitchers have shied away from trying to bust Heyward inside, and instead are focusing on trying to get him to chase pitches away. Its where most hitters are strongest, and when Heyward had his powerful 2012, he hit just three of his homers the other way. On June 3, Higgins recorded his first major league hit, . The Royals, Billy Butler, and Young Pitching. Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward had glowing praise for manager Dave Roberts, whom he calls a "baseball rat" who loves being around the game. Jordan Walker has a 28.5 ft/s Sprint Speed, good for an 80% percentile red lollipop once he gets a Savant slider. FanGraphs Membership. As expected, their value on defense drops over the next ten years, but a curious thing has happened to their offensive numbers simultaneously. Games, Puzzles, and Crossword. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. FanGraphs projects San Diego as the . While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. by Retrosheet. Currently, Yahoo! Maybe Heyward just belongs in that 110 120 range of wRC+. Karl, a journalist living in Washington, D.C., learned about life's disappointments by following the Mets beginning at a young age. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. He was 97-98 [mph], but I dont think that was the most interesting part of the outing. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections Heres a powerful triple to center. Oviedo began incorporating a sinker at the suggestion of coaches upon being acquired from the Cardinals at the Trade Deadline. They were like, Why are you not throwing it with a [sinker] grip and try to get used to it and learn how to throw it?. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. According to Fangraphs, during his first six seasons, Jason Heyward was "worth" $198.1 million. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman. Jason Hayward signed an 8-year/$184,000,000 contract with the Chicago Cubs, which includes a $20,000,000 signing bonus, $184,000,000 guaranteed, and an annual average salary of $23,000,000. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. His arm isnt great BIS had him costing the Braves three runs in that manner but his range was so impressive that he offered center-field like defense even once he was penalized for playing in the corner outfield. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Heyward will get paid. 2022 Updated In-Season Projections It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Additionally, Heyward had no say in November 2014, when his hometown Atlanta Braves, the club for whom he had foregone a full-ride scholarship to UCLA, traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals. As in the case of the first table, we again see some of the greatest baseball players. Hes still really young Every other player produced at an incredibly high level from age 26 to age 35, maintaining their hitting line from 26 to 35 that they had in their early 20s. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. by Retrosheet. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as "more than adequate" in the field at center. There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. 1 day ago. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Heres why. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. BIS found more under-cover evidence of his speed: Heyward only grounded into five double plays in 145 GDP opportunities. . Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. Searching again for players from 1960 to 2007, limiting those players through age-25 within 20% of Heywards PAs, but instead of using WAR, look at players with a wRC+ between 110 and 125 and within 15 points of Heywards 121 wRC+ at age 25. In 2022, Heyward will earn a base salary of $22,000,000, with a total salary of $24,500,000. Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Even with a bum shoulder, Heyward has managed to draw a decent amount of walks and hit for some power. Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heyward did it all offensively as a rookie: he showed superb plate discipline (a 14.6% walk rate), hit for power (a .179 Isolated Power) and didnt punch out at an exorbitant rate (20.5 K%). by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. We're asking for your help to make it. Combining average power with a low strikeout rate (14.8% in 2015) and a solid walk rate (9.2%), Heywards wRC+ of 121 puts him in the upper third in terms of the leagues hitters. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. Well know whats up by the beginning of May. Over the last four years, he hasn't had a wRC+ under 110 or over 121, but there's so clearly the. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. Higgins over one inning. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Bill James Regarding the second concern, I attempted to isolate only very good fielding outfielders. Some call it a sweeper. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way.